GESTAR II Seminar Series with Dr. Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA NWS EMC)

Join us for a virtual seminar by Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, Senior Scientist (ST) at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). His talk is titled "Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts: Field Campaigns, Observations, and Modeling."

Date and Time: Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 11:00am EST

Abstract: "Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key features in the global water cycle and are tied to both flood hazards and beneficial water supply, particularly in the western North America. The rising frequency and impacts of ARs in recent years call for better observations and improved NWP models for forecasting AR landfalls and associated precipitation. The existing Research And Operations Partnership (RAOP) on AR Recon, led by CW3E at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NCEP/EMC has established a core capability to plan and conduct an interagency/international program of airborne reconnaissance and modeling/data assimilation that is improving the understanding and prediction of landfalling atmospheric rivers on the US West Coast. AR Recon has been operational since 2020 to meet the directive of the National Winter Season Operations Plan (NWSOP; OFCM), which directed NOAA and US Air Force to fly missions using the AR Recon paradigm. Under the Water in the West program, NOAA has undertaken a multi-year project to research and improve atmospheric river forecasts, and is a major contributor for the agency's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC) initiative. Additionally, the Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) has established requirements for better AR predictions, and recent western US drought and flood situations have illustrated the need. 

This presentation describes the ongoing AR Recon efforts to collect real-time observations over the Pacific and the impact on improving operational GFS forecasts for the West Coast. We also present progress in the development of the new Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecast System (AR-AFS), within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. Performance of the AR-AFS prototype experiments during the initial testing and evaluation period is being evaluated in partnership with NCEP Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and OAR Global Systems Laboratory (GSL). Future plans include design and development of an on-demand high-resolution ensemble forecast system (AR-EFS) with sophisticated capabilities for probabilistic prediction of ARs using advanced post-processing methods with Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) algorithms.

EMC is leading the operational AR Recon Program and developing a new Unified Forecast System (UFS) based on-demand high-resolution regional Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecast System (AR-AFS) for rapidly advancing the precipitation forecast skill in support of managing the water resources in the US West Coast. This project is supported by OAR/WPO's Water in the West Initiative and will take a central role in real-time demonstration for 2025/2026 winter season, and is a major contributor for the agency's Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC) initiative. 

This presentation will highlight the AR Recon Program and Water in the West Project with emphasis on Research and Operations Partnership that includes participation from academia (NCAR, UCSD, CU, SUNYA etc.), other Federal Agencies (Navy, USACE), and international collaborators (ECMWF).

Biography: Dr. Vijay Tallapragada is the Senior Scientist (ST) at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), leading and advancing the development and operational implementation of community-based numerical weather and climate prediction systems within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. He is serving as a co-lead of the UFS Research to Operations (UFS-R2O) project, development manager of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), and leading the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance and Modeling projects at National Weather Service (NWS), supporting transition of advanced research into operational applications. He has received many awards and honors including NWS Isaac Cline Award for Leadership (2013), two Gold Medals from the US Department of Commerce (2014, 2019), and two NOAA Administrator Awards (2018, 2025).

Dr. Tallapragada received his M.S. (Meteorology), M.Tech. (Atmospheric Sciences), Ph.D. (Tropical Meteorology) from Andhra University, India, and post-doctoral research faculty at Florida State University prior to joining NCEP in 2006 where he was mentored by world renowned tropical meteorologist Prof. T.N. Krishnamurti. He has more than 150 refereed publications in various journals of international reputation and supervised six Ph.D. students and eight Masters’ students. He was the recipient of AMS Banner Miller Award in 2019 along with AMS Weather and Forecasting Committee Distinguished Scientific Achievement Award, and elected as Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2022 and Fellow of the Indian Meteorological Society in 2024. 

Dr. Tallapragada serves on various committees and advisory boards of international research and operational centers, and has developed extensive collaborations with many countries including India, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Brazil, UK, Oman. His recent efforts resulted in renewing the Monsoon Desk Implementation Agreement with the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences for another 5 years through 2028, which enables more productive interactions between NOAA and MoES facilities in India.

Visit the GESTAR II Seminar Series site for more information on upcoming and previous speakers.