Spotlight on Landslide and Glacier Research by both Stanley and Ultee

While one may not think about greenhouse gases and landslides in the same context, the 2024 paper “Landslide Hazard Is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia” led by Thomas Stanley (617/UMBC) explored the link. Published in Earth’s Future, this study was the focus of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Spotlight “Rising risks of sliding slopes in High Mountain Asia” in early 2025. 

One key question in the Spotlight article was “As climate shifts, likely weather patterns change, but by how much?” In turn, “The answer depends largely on human actions.” They discuss which factors Stanley’s team used to create “the landslide hazard indicator (LHI),” and one of the factors is SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), “which group projections about emissions [which increase in relation to levels of fossil fuels] and mitigation efforts.” Given High Mountain Asia's (HMA) varied terrain and elevation, “Stanley and coauthors emphasized “the need for continued vigilance by engineers, planners, and emergency responders across High Mountain Asia.”” Consider the catastrophic effects of “the late-monsoon rainfall in late September 2024, which resulted in 100+ landslides across Nepal and overall 200+ deaths.” For further supplemental information, the research team released a data set, available through the NSIDC DAAC.

Citation: Stanley, T.A. (617/UMBC), R.B. Soobitsky, P.M. Amatya (617/UMBC), and D.B. Kirschbaum (610/GSFC). 2024. Landslide Hazard Is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia. Earth’s Future 12(10): e2023EF004325. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004325.

The article “Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins,” of which Lizz Ultee (615/MSU) is second author, was selected as an Editor’s Highlight in The Cryosphere. The first author, Finn Wimberly, was working with her as an undergraduate research assistant. Dr. Ultee stated, “This study is the first comparison of glacier runoff to the world’s 75 major river basins, as simulated by three global glacier models.” These models are “the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), and Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM).” In discussing their challenge, methods, and goals, “uncertainties in projected glacier runoff from a multi-glacier-model ensemble have yet to be quantified. Here, we analyze the first estimate of glacier runoff projections for the three most advanced, globally capable glacier models, forced by an ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), for 75 glaciated major river basins. For each basin, we analyze annual glacier runoff, the year of peak water, and seasonal runoff cycle projected by each glacier evolution model until the year 2100. [...] Ultimately, the study aims to summarize inter-model similarities and differences in runoff projections, discern general reasons for observed differences, and provide guidance for [those] seeking to incorporate readily available glacier model projections into future planning.”